{"id":1304,"date":"2021-02-28T19:52:35","date_gmt":"2021-02-28T19:52:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/radamichal.cz\/?p=1304"},"modified":"2021-03-01T06:27:38","modified_gmt":"2021-03-01T06:27:38","slug":"jak-je-to-s-tou-covidovou-statistikou-kolem-deti-potrebou-zavirani-skol-a-skolek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/?p=1304","title":{"rendered":"Jak je to s tou Covidovou statistikou kolem d\u011bt\u00ed, pot\u0159ebou zav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed \u0161kol a \u0161kolek, \u2026?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

P\u0159ed \u010dl\u00e1nkem samotn\u00fdm bych nejprve r\u00e1d \u0159ekl, \u017ee jeho c\u00edlem nem\u00e1 b\u00fdt jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f, zdali se \u0161koly maj\u00ed \u010di nemaj\u00ed otev\u0159\u00edt a zdali bylo moudr\u00e9 zav\u0159\u00edt i to m\u00e1lo, co bylo otev\u0159en\u00e9 (mate\u0159sk\u00e9 \u0161koly, speci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161koly a 1. a 2. t\u0159\u00eddy z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u0161kol). Takov\u00e1to rozhodnut\u00ed n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed za n\u011b zodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, tedy vl\u00e1d\u011b, kter\u00e1 bezpochyby nem\u00e1 jednoduch\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, je v tlaku ze v\u0161ech stran, a pot\u0159ebuje do rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed vhled, od odborn\u00edk\u016f spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 informace, od expert\u016f anal\u00fdzy, od v\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch bezpochyby modlitby a od Boha moudrost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Statistika nuda je…<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Jak ale v\u00edme, tak statistika nab\u00edz\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 \u00fadaje. Ned\u00e1vno vydal zapsan\u00fd spolek Pedagogick\u00e1 komora kr\u00e1tk\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek s daty, ze kter\u00e9ho jasn\u011b vypl\u00fdvalo, \u017ee u p\u0159ed\u0161koln\u00edch d\u011bt\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1k\u016f  1. a 2. t\u0159\u00edd vy\u0161el jednozna\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst procentu\u00e1ln\u00edho pod\u00edlu p\u0159\u00edpadu Covid pozitivn\u00edch – https:\/\/www.pedagogicka-komora.cz\/2021\/02\/koronavirus-se-nyni-siri-predevsim-mezi.html<\/a>. Toho se mnoz\u00ed chytli a m\u011bli hned jasn\u00fd argument, pro\u010d by se m\u011bly v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci zav\u0159\u00edt \u0161koly i \u0161kolky a pro\u010d se vlastn\u011b nezav\u0159ely u\u017e d\u00e1vno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ud\u011blal jsem si podle ve\u0159ejn\u011b dostupn\u00fdch dat podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzu, ze kter\u00e9 je patrn\u00fd procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj Covid pozitivn\u00edch d\u011bt\u00ed v\u016f\u010di v\u0161em Covid pozitivn\u00edm pro ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u011bk zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165. Pro objasn\u011bn\u00ed interpretace grafu \u2013 kdyby \u010d\u00e1ra vedla vodorovn\u011b, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee s r\u016fstem celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu Covid pozitivn\u00edch \u00fapln\u011b stejn\u011b roste po\u010det Covid pozitivn\u00edch d\u011bt\u00ed dan\u00e9 v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny. Pokud k\u0159ivka roste, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee se po\u010det Covid pozitivn\u00edch d\u011bt\u00ed zvy\u0161uje rychleji u dan\u00e9 v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny, ne\u017e celkov\u00fd po\u010det Covid pozitivn\u00edch. \u00dadaje v grafu jsou v\u017edy souhrnn\u011b od dan\u00e9ho data (zobrazen\u00e9ho dole) za cel\u00fd n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fdden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

PRO\u010c ROSTE PROCENTU\u00c1LN\u00cd POD\u00cdL COVID POZITIVN\u00cdCH D\u011aT\u00cd U MLAD\u0160\u00cdCH RO\u010cN\u00cdK\u016e I V JIN\u00ddCH V\u011aKOV\u00ddCH SKUPIN\u00c1CH, KTER\u011a DO \u0160KOLY\/\u0160KOLKY NECHOD\u00cd?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Ur\u010dit\u011b m\u016f\u017eeme jednozna\u010dn\u011b \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee informace, se kter\u00fdmi p\u0159i\u0161la Ped. komora, tedy \u017ee procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed pod\u00edl Covid pozitivn\u00edch d\u011bt\u00ed ve v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupin\u011b \u0161kolkov\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed a d\u011bt\u00ed z 1. a 2. t\u0159\u00eddy, opravdu roste. Na druhou stranu nelze si nev\u0161imnout, \u017ee tento procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst zaznamenaly i jin\u00e9 v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny \u2013 z t\u011bch men\u0161\u00edch ti ro\u010dn\u00ed, dvoulet\u00ed i t\u0159\u00edlet\u00ed, z t\u011bch star\u0161\u00edch zejm\u00e9na ti osmilet\u00ed a dev\u00edtilet\u00ed. (Te\u010f mysl\u00edm opravdu procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst pod\u00edlu v\u016f\u010di v\u0161em testovan\u00fdm \u2013 tzn. nejen, \u017ee p\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed tak, jako v\u0161echny v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupiny, ale \u017ee ten p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek roste strm\u011bji). To n\u00e1s vede k zamy\u0161len\u00ed, zdali opravdu tu hlavn\u00ed roli, pro\u010d k\u0159ivka u p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161en\u00fdch v\u011bkov\u00fdch skupin roste rychleji, hraj\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e1 \u0161kolsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Jak bychom pak tento n\u00e1r\u016fst vysv\u011btlili u d\u011bt\u00ed z ostatn\u00edch v\u011bkov\u00fdch kategorii, kter\u00e9 do \u0161koly ani \u0161kolky nechod\u00ed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O JAK\u00ddCH \u010c\u00cdSLECH SE TU VLASTN\u011a BAV\u00cdME?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed k zamy\u0161len\u00ed je, jak velkou \u010d\u00e1st pozitivn\u011b testovan\u00fdch vlastn\u011b d\u011bti z diskutovan\u00fdch v\u011bkov\u00fdch kategori\u00ed tvo\u0159\u00ed. V\u011bk 4-5 let (M\u0160) tvo\u0159\u00ed z celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu cca 2,4% (tedy nap\u0159. nyn\u00ed cca 200 d\u011bt\u00ed denn\u011b) ze v\u0161ech pozitivn\u011b testovan\u00fdch lid\u00ed, podobn\u011b pak i v\u011bk 6-7 let (1. a 2. t\u0159\u00edda Z\u0160) tvo\u0159\u00ed 2,5% ze v\u0161ech pozitivn\u011b testovan\u00fdch. Jeliko\u017e v\u016f\u010di celku jde tak o velmi mal\u00e9 hodnoty, ot\u00e1zkou k zamy\u0161len\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, jestli opravdu i tak diskutabiln\u00ed „\u00fasporu“ hledat pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to v\u011bkov\u00e9 skupin\u011b \u2013 kdy\u017e pomysl\u00edme i na fakt, co v\u0161echno vlastn\u011b zav\u0159en\u00ed mate\u0159sk\u00fdch \u0161kol a 1. a 2. t\u0159\u00edd Z\u0160 p\u016fsob\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efekt ZAV\u0158EN\u00cd \u0160KOL V POLOVIN\u011a \u0158\u00cdJNA 2020<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b stoj\u00ed za to se pod\u00edvat i do tohoto posledn\u00edho grafu a pokusit se z n\u011bj vysledovat, zdali pot\u00e9, co se zav\u0159ely v polovin\u011b \u0159\u00edjna \u0161koly, tak to p\u0159ineslo n\u011bco z\u00e1sadn\u00edho do pod\u00edlu pozitivn\u011b testovan\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed v\u016f\u010di celkov\u00e9mu po\u010dtu Covid pozitivn\u00edch. Na pohled je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee z grafu \u017e\u00e1dnou zm\u011bnu vy\u010d\u00edst nelze. \u010clov\u011bk by \u010dekal klesaj\u00edc\u00ed sm\u011br, ale on je bu\u010f stagnuj\u00edc\u00ed, nebo je\u0161t\u011b \u010dast\u011bji rostouc\u00ed. Uveden\u00e1 anal\u00fdza tak ur\u010dit\u011b vede minim\u00e1ln\u011b k zamy\u0161len\u00ed, zdali opravdu zav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed \u0161kol, \u0161kolek a t\u0159\u00edd je tou cestou k \u00fasp\u011bchu, nebo jen draze zaplacen\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd pokus, kter\u00fd na\u0161e d\u011bti dlouhodob\u011b odn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafy byly vytvo\u0159eny na z\u00e1klad\u011b ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159\u00edstupn\u00fdch dat na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch https:\/\/onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz\/api\/v2\/covid-19<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159ed \u010dl\u00e1nkem samotn\u00fdm bych nejprve r\u00e1d \u0159ekl, \u017ee jeho c\u00edlem nem\u00e1 b\u00fdt jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f, zdali se \u0161koly maj\u00ed \u010di nemaj\u00ed otev\u0159\u00edt a zdali bylo moudr\u00e9 zav\u0159\u00edt i to m\u00e1lo, co bylo otev\u0159en\u00e9 (mate\u0159sk\u00e9 \u0161koly, speci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161koly a 1. a 2. t\u0159\u00eddy z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u0161kol). Takov\u00e1to rozhodnut\u00ed n\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm t\u011bm, kte\u0159\u00ed za n\u011b zodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, tedy vl\u00e1d\u011b, kter\u00e1 … Pokra\u010dovat ve \u010dten\u00ed „Jak je to s tou Covidovou statistikou kolem d\u011bt\u00ed, pot\u0159ebou zav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed \u0161kol a \u0161kolek, \u2026?“<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[25,26,27,28,29],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1304"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1324,"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304\/revisions\/1324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radamichal.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}